🔗 Share this article

Within the widespread uncertainty surrounding the US strikes on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “run” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the recent overnight operation saw its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “American dominance in the western hemisphere will never be questioned again,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and seize its president – mere days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who was elected vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this action without legal basis came absent any United Nations mandate or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel additional military gambits.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as a desire to project strength, the worldview of key officials, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not due to Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may regret it if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.